Onchari Oyieyo, Chief Executive Officer of CAP
A new study by the Center for Africa Progress has revealed that a staggering 92 percent of Nairobi residents believe the county is on the wrong path. The 2025 Nairobi County Leadership Study, conducted between March 6th and 9th, surveyed 4,000 registered voters across all 85 wards in the city.
Nairobi’s Growing Population and Political Importance
Nairobi, Kenya’s administrative and political capital, remains the country’s largest county in terms of both registered voters and economic strength. According to the study, the county has 2.49 million registered voters and recorded a GDP of $14.8 billion as of 2017. Its population has also surged from 4.3 million in 2019 to an estimated 5.5 million in 2024.
Speaking at the study’s unveiling, Onchari Oyieyo Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of CAP noted that the dissatisfaction among Nairobi residents reflects deep-rooted governance issues in the county.
Key Factors Influencing Voter Decisions
The study examined the main factors that influence voter preferences in Nairobi. Three major themes emerged:
1.Candidate Appeal – Voters favor candidates who communicate effectively, understand local issues, and engage well with the public.
2. Tribe – While only a small group openly admitted to voting based on tribal lines, researchers observed that ethnicity plays a significant role in voter decision-making.
3. Cash Incentives – Some respondents acknowledged that financial inducements influence their choice of candidates.
Race for Governor: Babu Owino and Denis Waweru leads the pack
The study also shed light on the race for Nairobi governor ahead of the 2025 elections. According to the survey, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino is the current frontrunner, with 38 percent support. He is followed closely by Denis Waweru at 31 percent.
Incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja is trailing in third place with 14 percent, while Tim Wanyonyi and James Gakuya have 7 percent and 6 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, 4 percent of respondents remain undecided.
“As the 2025 elections draw closer, these findings highlight Nairobians’ growing dissatisfaction with leadership and the key factors shaping voter decisions in the capital,” the study noted.
With the race for governor heating up, the battle between Babu Owino and Denis Waweru is expected to intensify as the election date approaches.