As the world dove into the annual Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping frenzy, a new analysis by TransUnion has shed light on evolving ecommerce fraud patterns. Spanning November 28 (Thanksgiving) to December 2, the report reveals a global decrease in suspected digital fraud rates compared to previous years. However, regional discrepancies, particularly in Africa, signal the need for continued vigilance.
TransUnion’s data showed that 4.6 percent of global online transactions during the 2024 Black Friday season were flagged as suspected fraud—a notable decline from 6.0 percent in 2023. Over the same period, the volume of suspected fraud attempts dropped by 30.2 percent compared to last year and was 5.9 percent lower than the rest of the year leading up to Black Friday.
The findings also revealed that November 28, Thanksgiving Day, saw the highest global suspected fraud rate during the holiday shopping season, with 5.3 percent of transactions flagged as fraudulent.
While global ecommerce fraud declined, African nations experienced varying trends. In Botswana and Namibia, suspected fraud rates increased year-over-year. Namibia’s rate surged to 6.1 percent during Black Friday season 2024, up from 4.3 percent the previous year. Similarly, Botswana saw an increase to 3.8 percent, compared to 1.1 percent in 2023.
In contrast, Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa, and Zambia witnessed significant declines. Kenya, which had a staggering 17.2 percent suspected fraud rate in 2022, saw its rate drop to 10.3 percent in 2024. South Africa also improved, with rates decreasing from 3.0 percent in 2023 to 1.9 percent this year.
Amritha Reddy, Senior Director for Solutions at TransUnion Africa, attributed the decline in some regions to the extended holiday shopping season. “Retailers across Africa have stretched their Black Friday promotions throughout November. This extended shopping period has likely diluted the concentration of fraud attempts,” she noted.
Globally, the top indicators of ecommerce fraud included unusually high transaction volumes from a single device and newly created accounts.
Reddy emphasized the importance of proactive measures for retailers, stating, “It’s crucial for businesses to implement tools that detect and prevent fraud early without disrupting the customer experience. Holistic solutions like real-time fraud verification and robust identity checks can safeguard both businesses and consumers.”
To combat digital fraud, TransUnion provided actionable advice for consumers and businesses:
For Consumers
Verify website security: Shop only on secure websites with “https” in the URL.
Avoid unrealistic deals: Be wary of offers that seem too good to be true.
Use secure payment methods: Opt for trusted and verifiable payment platforms.
Strengthen account security: Use strong passwords and enable multi-factor authentication.
Monitor financial statements: Regularly review bank and credit card activity for unauthorized transactions.
For Businesses
Leverage fraud detection tools: Use real-time systems to flag unusual transactions.
Educate employees: Train staff to recognize and respond to fraud attempts.
Communicate with customers: Share tips to help consumers distinguish legitimate transactions from fraudulent ones.
The TransUnion analysis underscores the need for year-round diligence as fraudsters adapt their tactics. While holiday shopping remains a lucrative period for retailers, it also presents opportunities for bad actors. “This season is pivotal for businesses, and robust fraud prevention strategies can protect revenues while fostering consumer trust,” Reddy concluded.
As digital shopping continues to grow, the battle against ecommerce fraud is far from over. However, the declining global fraud rates suggest progress is being made in securing the online marketplace.