TIFA Survey reveals deep electoral distrust, half of Kenyans lack confidence in 2027 elections
A majority of Kenyans doubt the credibility of the upcoming 2027 General Election, a new survey by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) has revealed. Presented by lead analyst Dr. Tom Wolf, the national opinion poll paints a troubling picture of public trust in the country’s electoral processes, with political interference, corruption, and dissatisfaction with the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) cited as key concerns.
According to the data, 69 percent of respondents said they do not fully trust the official results of the past three presidential elections. Views are split, with some believing that all three elections were rigged, others saying one or two were credible, and a small minority confident in the legitimacy of all.
The survey highlights stark regional disparities in electoral confidence. In Nyanza, a region historically aligned with opposition politics, 48 percent of respondents said none of the past elections were legitimate, compared to just 16 percent who viewed all as credible.
Meanwhile, in pro-government regions like Central Rift and Mt. Kenya, 38 percent and 39 percent respectively said they believed all three elections were fair.
Looking ahead, the outlook for the 2027 election appears grim. Only 20 percent of Kenyans said they had full confidence in the next poll, with half of the population expressing no confidence at all.
The process of selecting new IEBC commissioners, though nearly complete, has also come under scrutiny. Over half of the respondents 55 percent said the selection was not based on merit, while only 39 percent expressed trust in the vetting process. Public awareness of the shortlisted candidates remains low, with 61 percent unable to name any of the four finalists.
Anne Amadi emerged as the most recognized and supported candidate for commissioner, with 30 percent awareness and 41 percent support. Her backing is strongest among younger voters aged 18–34, and in regions such as Nairobi and Nyanza. Charles Nyachae followed with 11 percent recognition and 23 percent support, appealing more to older voters.
Each candidate drew support for specific reasons: Nyachae for experience 56 percent Ramadhan for independence percent, Ehekon for change percent, and Amadi for gender percent and regional representation 7 percent
The survey established a clear connection between public perception of past elections and trust in the future. Among those confident in the 2027 elections, 33 percent believed the previous elections were fair. Conversely, 64 percent of those who doubted the upcoming polls said all recent elections were flawed.
TIFA also found low levels of civic knowledge. Few Kenyans were aware that the IEBC has already missed a key constitutional deadline—the review of constituency boundaries, which was due in February 2024.
Opinions on President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga’s push for “broad-based” political cooperation are divided. While 36 percent say it undermines IEBC independence, 30 percent believe it could strengthen election oversight.
Dr. Wolf emphasized that the survey serves as a benchmark to track public sentiment ahead of the 2027 elections. “These findings reflect a deep mistrust that must be addressed. As reforms proceed, future polls will show whether confidence is being restored,” he noted.
With just two years left before the next general election, rebuilding faith in the electoral system remains a pressing challenge for the IEBC and political stakeholders.
