Kenya is set to play a leading role in shaping global understanding of aging and health after securing a USD 25 million (KES 3.2 billion) grant from the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) to fund a pioneering demographic and health study.
The Longitudinal Study of Health and Aging in Kenya (LOSHAK)—a collaboration between Aga Khan University’s (AKU) Department of Population Health, Medical College East Africa, and the University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research (ISR)—will investigate how shifting demographics are reshaping health and economic systems in Kenya and beyond.
While Africa remains the youngest continent, its older population is expanding at a rate unmatched globally. By 2050, the proportion of people aged 60 and above is projected to nearly triple, with Kenya expected to record a fourfold increase in older adults over the next three decades.
“Thanks in part to improved health services and access, life expectancy in Kenya is increasing. The irony is that these trends create new challenges for the very healthcare and economic systems that enabled them. Now, there is a need to adapt and innovate,” said Dr. Joshua Ehrlich, co-lead of LOSHAK and Research Associate Professor at U-M.
Co-leading the study is Dr. Anthony Ngugi, Associate Professor and Chair of the Department of Population Health at AKU, who emphasised the urgency of preparing health systems for the changing landscape. “These demographic shifts will stress economic systems and create new demands for healthcare delivery, from elder care to chronic disease management and cancer treatments,” he said.
The five-year NIH award will support two large-scale surveys:
A Core Survey targeting 6,500 Kenyans aged 45 and older nationwide, collecting health, social, and economic data in over a dozen languages. This will be harmonised with global ageing studies such as the U.S. Health and Retirement Survey.
A Specialised Survey of 2,300 older adults in Kenya’s Coast Region, focusing on risk factors for memory loss, Alzheimer’s disease, and related conditions.
The project will establish a long-term survey cohort, providing valuable open-access data for global researchers. It is expected to guide policymakers and healthcare providers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) as they confront unprecedented challenges of population ageing.
“This study will provide the best possible evidence to understand and care for LMIC populations that look much different from those typically seen today,” Dr. Ngugi added.
By laying the foundation for future population aging studies, LOSHAK aims to position Kenya as a continental hub for aging research and policymaking, offering insights not only for Africa but for the world.