John Gachora, Group Managing Director & CEO NCBA Group(left) and Dr. David Ndii, Chairperson, President’s Council of Economic Advisors
NCBA bank projects Kenya’s GDP to grow at 4.8 percent in 2024, with expectations for similar growth in 2025, amid a cautiously optimistic outlook for the country’s economy. The announcement was made Wednesday during NCBA’s annual Economic Forum, themed “Navigating Uncertainty – Key Trends Influencing the Economic and Business Environment in 2025.”
The event focused on both global and domestic factors likely to shape Kenya’s economic landscape, covering inflation trends, fiscal policy adjustments, and sectoral growth.
Speaking at the event, NCBA Group Managing Director John Gachora, expressed optimism about Kenya’s economic progress, particularly in the context of battling inflation and stabilizing the exchange rate. “Today’s economic forum comes at a time when the battle against inflation from both food, global commodity prices, and restrictive coastal financing of businesses is almost won,” Gachora stated.
The group MD highlighted Kenya’s October inflation rate, which hit a 14-year low at 2.7 percent, marking a significant improvement. This easing of inflation, he noted, provides an opportunity to recalibrate monetary policy, and NCBA has already responded by revising its base lending rate downward. “For those borrowing with us, hopefully you’re enjoying that reduction. And for those who are not yet with us, we invite you to take advantage of the lower rates,” Gachora remarked, emphasizing NCBA’s proactive role in passing on savings to its customers.
Mrs. Mary-Ann Musangi, Chairperson, Women in Manufacturing Committee, KAM and MD-HACO Industries LTD (left), Dr. David Ndii, Chairperson, President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Mr. Sandeep Main, Partner, Tax and Regulatory Service, KPMG and Mr. Julians Amboko, Business Editor, Nation Media Group
The forum noted that many of Kenya’s key economic sectors are returning to their long-term average growth rates. However, Gachora pointed out that sustaining this momentum and achieving inclusive growth remains a significant challenge. “The role of government and markets will be crucial to sustaining this growth, as well as enabling households and business enterprises to build buffers for future shocks,” he added
The NCBA forum also covered the broader global economic context, where steady growth is expected to continue, with the IMF projecting a global GDP growth rate of 3.1 percent in 2024, rising to 3.3 percent in 2025.
Strong growth in the U.S. economy, as well as positive trends in India, parts of Europe, and Latin America, are contributing to these projections. However, Gachora acknowledged the downside risks, especially concerning fiscal sustainability challenges faced by various countries.
Gachora stressed that NCBA’s mission goes beyond forecasting and includes active engagement in identifying and addressing Kenya’s core growth challenges. Through the NCBA Economic Forum, the bank intends to foster dialogue on necessary reforms and the actions required to guide Kenya’s economy back to its full potential. He emphasized the need for solutions that benefit both business enterprises and households, aiming for a more inclusive economic growth model.
NCBA’s in-house forecasts predict that Kenya’s GDP will continue to grow at 4.8 percent in 2025, in line with this year’s projection. Gachora reminded attendees that the bank’s 2023 predictions had closely matched this year’s performance, underscoring NCBA’s credibility in economic forecasting.